The National Center for Health Research (NCHR) appreciates the opportunity to provide comments in response to the FDA’s request for public input on the risks and benefits of menopause hormone therapy (MHT), following the July 17, 2025, Expert Panel meeting and the opening of docket FDA-2025-N-2589.
NCHR is a nonprofit think tank committed to bridging the gap between scientific evidence and public policy to protect the health and safety of patients and consumers. Our work focuses on ensuring that medical and consumer products are evaluated based on rigorous, independent evidence, with particular attention to how benefits and risks may differ across patient populations, including women and men at different life stages.
We commend the FDA for seeking broad stakeholder input to update the labeling of hormone therapy products for menopause to reflect current scientific understanding. Given the widespread use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) for symptom relief, it is vital that labeling clearly communicates nuanced risks and benefits so that women and their healthcare providers can make informed, evidence-based decisions.
Local (Vaginal) Hormones vs Systemic
Randomized controlled trials including the REJOICE trial of a vaginal estradiol soft-gel capsule, the MsFLASH Vaginal Estradiol Trial, and a phase III trial of DHEA (dehydroepiandrosterone- Prasterone) along with systematic reviews demonstrate that low-dose vaginal estrogen and DHEA provide symptomatic relief of dyspareunia, dryness, and recurrent UTIs without increasing serum estradiol above placebo and systematic reviews demonstrate that low-dose vaginal estrogen and DHEA provide symptomatic relief of dyspareunia, dryness, and recurrent UTIs without increasing serum estradiol above placebo levels [1–3]. DHEA is a precursor steroid that can be converted intracellularly into estrogens and androgens in vaginal tissue, improving vaginal epithelium thickness, elasticity, and lubrication without raising systemic estradiol levels [4-6].
The Nurses’ Health Study followed postmenopausal women for up to 18 years, during which a subset reported vaginal estrogen use at one or more time points. Analyses compared ever-users versus never-users over that follow-up period and found no increased risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, venous thromboembolism, breast cancer, endometrial cancer, or other invasive cancers [7]. This study did not determine whether there were differences in risks for women who used vaginal estrogen for a longer vs. shorter period of time during those 18 years.
The Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study (WHI-OS) had a median follow-up of 7.2 years. Within that timeframe, Crandall et al. reported that women who used vaginal estrogen for a median of 2 years did not show higher risks of breast, endometrial, or cardiovascular events compared with non-users [8]. While 2–7 years of use and follow-up are informative, longer use and longer follow-up would provide greater reassurance about safety, since cancer usually is more likely to develop after longer-term exposures and longer latency periods.
Pharmacokinetic studies further support these findings, showing serum estradiol levels remain within postmenopausal ranges during treatment [9].
There are several studies of the impact of vaginal estrogen on breast cancer survivors who took endocrine therapy to reduce the recurrence of breast cancer. It is important to emphasize that women with estrogen receptor–positive breast cancer, which is the most common type, are typically prescribed 5–10 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy (tamoxifen or aromatase inhibitors) specifically to block estrogen [11-14]. Prescribing additional estrogen, even at local low doses, may undermine the benefits of their cancer hormonal treatment [12].
The evidence for vaginal estrogen for women taking endocrine therapy for cancer is mixed and limited by lack of stratification evaluating frequency of use or comparing long-term and short-term use:
- Streff et al. studied women on aromatase inhibitors using Estring and found a statistically significant but modest increase in serum estradiol (from undetectable to ~10–20 pmol/L in some women), suggesting partial reversal of estrogen suppression and warranting individualized decision-making [10].
- Cold et al., in a large Danish cohort, reported that vaginal estrogen was associated with increased recurrence risk when combined with aromatase inhibitors, but not when used concurrently with tamoxifen [15].
- McVicker et al., a UK population-based study of more than 49,000 cancer survivors, reported no reduction in survival among vaginal estrogen ever-users compared with never-users. However, this study did not stratify by ER status or by concurrent use of tamoxifen or aromatase inhibitors, making it difficult to draw useful conclusions about the possible risks [11].
Taken together, these findings underscore the need for better research evaluating different levels of exposure to low-dose vaginal estrogen, and for careful oncologist–patient consultation before initiating vaginal hormones in women with ER-positive disease, particularly those receiving adjuvant endocrine therapy.
Black Box Warning
The current Black Box warning on low-dose vaginal estrogen extrapolates systemic WHI trial data from women who were aged 50–79 years at enrollment (mean age ~63), many of whom initiated therapy more than 10 years after menopause and had higher baseline cardiometabolic risk, to local therapies with minimal absorption [16]. Although research evidence from WHI-OS and the Nurses’ Health Study are limited by not evaluating the impact of long-term low-dose vaginal hormone use, as noted above, the results are frequently reported as showing no increased risk of breast cancer, endometrial cancer, cardiovascular disease, or VTE among users of low-dose vaginal estrogen versus non-users. Similarly, a systematic review of randomized trials (most lasting 12 months or less) and observational studies of low-dose vaginal estrogens found very low rates of endometrial hyperplasia and cancer [6]. Serum estradiol levels generally remained within postmenopausal ranges during treatment [9], although small increases were observed in some aromatase-inhibitor–treated survivors using a vaginal ring [10].
Patients deserve labels on low-dose vaginal estrogen that accurately reflect the best research data. Although long-term clinical trials are not available, the evidence to date indicates a safer product than the current label implies. Women who want to use low-dose vaginal estrogen to treat GSM symptoms, recurrent UTIs, progression to urosepsis, and atrophic changes, should be aware of the known benefits as well as the limited number of years those results are based on [17, 18]. Recent research indicates that vaginal estrogen is an effective non-antibiotic strategy to prevent recurrent UTIs, which could lower antibiotic use that results in antimicrobial resistance [19].
Systemic Hormone Therapy for Menopause
Despite controversies about Systemic MHT, there are two areas of widespread agreement:
Temporary Benefit for Osteoporosis: MHT prevents fractures only while therapy is continued; benefits wane or disappear after discontinuation [10].
Endometrial Cancer: Systemic estrogen without progestin increases endometrial cancer risk; progestins mitigate this [10].
Impact on Dementia and Cardiovascular Health. In contrast, claims that systemic MHT prevents dementia or cardiovascular disease are not supported by the most recent, well-designed trials. The Women’s Health Initiative Memory Study (WHIMS) was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled ancillary trial of the WHI that enrolled postmenopausal women aged 65 and older [20]. It found that women randomized to combined estrogen plus progestin had a statistically significant doubled risk of probable dementia compared with placebo, where ‘probable dementia’ was defined by DSM-IV clinical criteria after abnormal screening on the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MS). WHI also showed no reduction in coronary heart disease (CHD) and instead reported a statistically significant increased risks of stroke and venous thromboembolism (VTE) [21]. Statements at the FDA Expert Panel describing MHT as “very safe” and protective against dementia and heart disease rely on studies with major methodological weaknesses, and have findings contradicted by more recent, better designed studies. High-quality evidence from RCTs and meta-analyses, including a 2015 Cochrane review [22], confirms systemic MHT does not prevent CHD or dementia. Therefore, labeling should explicitly state those risks as well as: ‘Not indicated for prevention of dementia, cognitive decline, coronary heart disease, or stroke.’
Examples of the flaws of the studies quoted in support of claims of preventing dementia or cardiovascular disease include the following:
Paganini-Hill and Henderson (1996): This case-control study used death certificates to ascertain Alzheimer’s disease and retrospective exposure assessment, with minimal adjustment for confounders and high potential for selection and survival bias. Findings were later contradicted by WHIMS randomized controlled trial results [20,23].
Simpkins (2012): This is a narrative review of rodent and mechanistic studies. It therefore cannot establish clinical benefit for dementia prevention in postmenopausal women [24].
Saleh (2023; EPAD): This cross-sectional analysis of the European Prevention of Alzheimer’s Dementia (EPAD) cohort focused on APOE4 carriers, which is a group at higher genetic risk for dementia. Among these women, only 29 were using HRT, while the remainder of the APOE4 carriers were not. The small study was non-randomized, was subject to healthy user bias and residual confounding, and relied on surrogate outcomes such as cognition and imaging markers rather than incident dementia. Therefore, no causal inference is appropriate [25].
Bagger (2005): This was a post-hoc subgroup analysis of the Danish Osteoporosis Prevention Study (DOPS). Although the parent trial enrolled over 2,000 women, only 333 underwent cognitive testing, creating a small sample to be analyzed. Results suggested cognitive benefit with early HRT initiation, but the analysis was underpowered, involved multiple comparisons with wide confidence intervals, and was potentially influenced by conflicts of interest. The findings were not replicated in later, larger randomized trials such as WHIMS [26].
Barrett Connor (1991) and Nurses’ Health Study (2000): These observational cohorts adjusted for some confounding variables but remained subject to substantial healthy user bias, since hormone therapy users were generally healthier, of higher socioeconomic status, and had better access to care. These studies were also limited by confounding by indication and time related biases. The apparent cardioprotective signals were refuted by WHI randomized findings [22, 27-28].
Breast Cancer Risks.
Breast cancer risk with MHT is complex. WHI showed combined estrogen + progestin increases incidence, while estrogen-only may reduce risk in women who had a prior hysterectomy [21, 29]. Duration and timing are key: Brien et al. pooled analysis found that more than 2 years of estrogen + progestin was linked to increased ER-negative and triple-negative cancers in younger women [30]. Zhang et al. found that women with dense breasts using MHT were more likely to develop interval cancers, which are more aggressive and often ER-negative [31].
Recommendations for Boxed Warnings
The FDA has precedent for formulation-specific warnings (e.g., lidocaine topical vs systemic) and we recommend that for MHT as well. We recommend retaining boxed warnings for all estrogen-containing products, but they should differ for systemic and local therapies.
Low-dose Vaginal Estrogen
Boxed warnings for low-dose vaginal products should not be based on systemic MHT but instead should state that long-term RCTs are lacking, and that unknown risks remain regarding prolonged use and long-term follow-up. The boxed warning should say that relatively short-term studies have not demonstrated excess cardiovascular or cancer risk. This labeling should emphasize caution for ER+ breast cancer survivors whether or not they are currently taking hormonal therapy for breast cancer.
Systemic Hormone Therapy for Menopause
FDA should retain the current boxed warning for systemic hormonal therapy for menopause, with a notation that there is specific information included in the regular narrative section on warnings and contraindications.
Systemic Therapy is Not Preventive. Labeling for systemic MHT should include an explicit statement that it is not indicated for prevention of dementia, cognitive decline, coronary heart disease, or stroke. It should specify that it reduces osteoporosis temporarily, while the woman is using MHT only. The label should cite WHI and WHIMS as the highest-quality data.
Breast Cancer Risks: Nuanced and Subtype-Specific. The label should be updated to reflect the following:
- Increased incidence with combined estrogen-progestin (WHI).
- Reduced or neutral risk with estrogen-only in women with prior hysterectomy.
- Increased risk of ER-negative and triple-negative cancers after more than 2 years of combined use in younger women [30].
- Higher likelihood of interval cancers in women with dense breasts using MHT [31].
- Advise tailored screening and shared decision-making for these higher-risk women.
The warning section should also indicate the following:
- Postmenopausal bleeding warrants evaluation for endometrial pathology.
- Breast cancer survivors should consult with their oncologists before using MHT.
Evidence Gaps and Future Research
The label should acknowledge the absence of high-quality RCTs stratified by dose, route, formulation, and duration.
In conclusion, we recommend the following FDA Actions
- Revise boxed warnings to distinguish systemic from local therapies [1-3,7-8, 15-16, 32].
- Add an explicit “Not preventive” statement that systemic MHT is not indicated for dementia, cognitive decline, CHD, or stroke [20-21,23-28,33].
- Update breast cancer sections with regimen- and subtype-specific risks, including young-onset and dense breast findings [15,29,31].
- Add guidance for breast cancer patients and survivors: Avoid vaginal estrogen during cancer hormonal therapy unless benefits outweigh risks; consider alternatives such as DHEA or ospemifene [8-11].
- Revise Medication Guides to differentiate between systemic vs local therapies, summarizing benefits, risks, and unknowns.
- Provide guidance to industry to conduct RCTs to clarify comparative safety by dose, route, formulation, and duration.
Thank you for the opportunity to share our views. We urge the FDA to hold Advisory Committee meetings prior to revising the labeling, and that the Committee members represent a diversity of views based on scientific and statistical expertise free of conflicts of interest associated with pharmaceutical funding or medical practice. Women deserve accurate, evidence-based labeling that distinguishes risk profiles of different MHT products and promotes informed, patient-centered decision-making free of bias. We welcome the opportunity to work with the FDA on this important issue, and can be reached at info@center4research.org.
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